A mere two months in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. After Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six games, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their star man to rescue them with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
